We're almost there. In less than 3 weeks, toe will meet ball as FSU kicks things off (literally) against Alabama in newly renovated Doak Campbell Stadium. It's been a long offseason, one defined by turnover and change as FSU searched for answers and attempts to right the wrongs of the abysmal 2024 season.
This year's slate features 7 home games and 5 road games, 2 Friday night games, and 2 bye weeks (Sep 13 and Oct 25). This season all 12 games will be played in the states and on the first week of the season, unlike last year where the Seminoles went overseas for a week 0 game in Ireland. Per usual, there are 8 ACC games including the annual rivalry games against Miami and Clemson, as well as the annual non-conference rivalry game on Thanksgiving weekend against Florida. 4 of FSU's opponents are ranked in the preseason top 15 (Clemson, Alabama, Miami, Florida).
Same format as last year, taking FSU's opponents and ranking them from least challenging to most. For what it's worth, last year FSU's two wins came against the teams I had ranked 12th and 10th (I had Memphis at 11).
#12. East Texas A&M
Saturday, September 6
FSU (and every other team) will play 1 game every year where they're undoubtedly the better, bigger, stronger, faster, more athletic team, and this is that game. Last year it was Charleston Southern and even in one of the worst years in school history FSU still won this game handily by a score of 45-7. That game was in mid-November, whereas this one is the second game of the season, which should come at a welcome time after the big clash with Bama the week prior.
#11. Kent State
Saturday, September 20
The Golden Flashes are definitely a step above East Texas A&M, but simultaneously a step below the remainder of FSU's ACC and SEC foes. They play in a smaller conference and haven't had a winning season or reached a bowl game since 2021. This game comes immediately after East Texas A&M, giving the Seminoles a favorable chance to start no worse than 2-1.
#10. @ Stanford
Saturday, October 18
Hopefully the hardest part of this game is staying awake, given it's 10:30 PM EST kickoff time. This is by far the game where FSU must travel the furthest geographically, and likely the only one in which the time change could be somewhat of a factor. Despite all of that, Stanford was right there with FSU in terms of bottom of the barrel ACC teams last season and unlike FSU they didn't seem to do much to attempt to change that, with both their recruiting class and transfer portal class ranking outside the top 50. Most experts see Stanford as the weakest ACC team so hopefully FSU's talent wins out here.
#9. Wake Forest
Saturday, November 1
Wake has been an up and down program over the years and given FSU some problems in the past, however they're also in the beginning stages of a rebuild with a new head coach and a large transfer class that has more questions than answers. This game is also in the friendly confines of Doak and FSU enters the season as the more talented team and one with higher expectations than Wake.
#8. @ Virginia
Friday, September 26
This is the point where we start getting to the ones that leave me with some level of concern. This one in particular has more to do with the scheduling than the opponent itself. The road trip to Virginia comes on a Friday evening on the weekend preceding the Miami game, and road trips on short weeks that precede big rivalry games always give me pause. But on paper, FSU should again have far more blue-chip talent. I would also hope that because of the fact that the 3 weeks leading up to this game are East Texas A&M, a bye week, and Kent State, FSU will still have ample time to prepare for Virginia in the weeks prior to the week of the game itself.
#7. Pittsburgh
Saturday, October 11
This is a tricky one. Last year Pittsburgh started 7-0 and reached a peak ranking of #18 before starting quarterback Eli Holstein suffered a season-ending injury and the Panthers then went on to lose their final 6 games. Was Holstein really that impactful? Or was Pitt's first half of the season significantly easier than it's second half? More than likely it was a little bit of both. The only team Pitt played in its first 7 games that finished ranked was Syracuse, who only snuck in due to a surprise upset over Miami in the final week of the season. Even with Holstein back, the Panthers are a middle of the pack ACC squad at best, and FSU gets this one at home.
#6. Virginia Tech
Saturday, November 15
It was close to me between this one and Pitt for the #6 spot, but ultimately I feel like Virginia Tech has more reasons for optimism and an overall higher ceiling. Kyron Drones is one of the more experienced quarterbacks the FSU defense will face in conference play, and one who can hurt them with both his arm and his legs. The Hokies also quietly finished last season with the ACC's 3rd ranked defense behind only Clemson and SMU. If this were a road game it would feel like a toss up or perhaps even Virginia Tech as a slight favorite, but fortunately for FSU this one is also in Doak and hopefully that gives the Noles a slight edge.
#5. @ NC State
Friday, November 21
The top 4 are obvious but this feels like the next most concerning one. It's yet again a Friday night road game and it precedes UF week. FSU has historically always had trouble playing at NC State and of the two Friday night road opponents preceding rivals they probably boast a better roster than Virginia. Weather could also be a slight factor given it's late November in North Carolina. This is another "on paper I think FSU can beat them" situation but they'll have history and multiple logistics working against them.
#4. @ #15 Florida
Saturday, November 29
In the remaining games, I expect FSU to be the clear underdog. We are also now in the category where we can no longer say FSU is the "more talented team on paper". UF is maybe the single member of the list that, in theory, could be different. Their starting quarterback, DJ Lagway, is a force to be reckoned with when healthy. However health is a bit of a concern for Lagway. He missed games last year with a hamstring injury, then missed all of spring with an injury to his throwing shoulder, and then missed the opening of fall camp with a calf strain. He also had a lingering minor core/sports hernia injury from high school. Lagway was also the main thing keeping Billy Napier from being fired last year, so if Lagway goes down and things go south in Gainseville, we could see Napier and a bulk of the staff be relieved of their duties, which makes this game much more winnable for FSU. But we have to approach these things under the assumption of relatively good health, and if that's the case UF will certainly be favored at home and the experts believe in their potential given their top 15 ranking.
#3. #10 Miami
Saturday, October 4
This one largely comes down to how effective Miami will be without Cam Ward. They spent big NIL money to lure Carson Beck away from Georgia, where he was the starter for the past 2 seasons. Beck is certainly one of the countries best and more experienced quarterbacks, but he has large shoes to fill given Ward was a Heisman candidate and ultimately became the top pick in the NFL draft. There were also a handful of games last season where the Hurricanes dug themselves in a deep hole, only for Ward to put his cape on and go Superman-mode to rescue them in comeback fashion at the very end. Miami did invest resources into improving its defense, so maybe they won't be digging those holes like they were last season, but if the defense still has its problems I'm not convinced Beck can rescue them as often as Ward did. Still, Miami's coming off a big year and the rankings suggest that experts believe they can build off of that even further.
#2. #8 Alabama
Saturday, August 30
It will have to be baptism by fire for these new look Noles as their season opener happens to be their second most challenging game. Alabama is one of college football's most illustrious programs with 18 national championships, including 6 of them between 2009 and 2020. It's a perennial top 10 program and annual national title contender loaded with blue chip talent and future NFL players. The spreads for the week 1 games are already out, and FSU is listed as a two touchdown underdog despite being at home. If you're looking for reasons to give FSU hope, Alabama will be rolling out a first-time starting quarterback so perhaps there will be some first-game jitters playing in a hostile road environment. If FSU can find a way to apply some pressure and force Alabama into some 3rd & longs early, it will put more weight on the new quarterback's shoulders, especially in a scenario where FSU jumps out to an early lead. However Bama's new QB will still be surrounded and supported by a wealth of talent as aforementioned that should help take the load off and make life easier. Regardless, this is going to be a big measuring stick for FSU from the very beginning and will be telling as to whether this group can compete with the big boys or if the underlying problems from 2024 still exist.
#1. @ #4 Clemson
Saturday, November 8
Despite all of Alabama's great history and accolades, the road trip to Clemson will be FSU's most daunting task in 2025. Dabo Swinney has been building a championship caliber roster at Clemson yet again, as evidenced by their top 4 ranking which is behind only Texas, Ohio State, and Penn State. Cade Klubnik is an All-American quarterback and by far the best one FSU will face, and he has an arsenal of talented pass catchers to throw to as well. Clemson also always has one of the nation's best defenses, sum it all together and it's no surprise that they're still regarded as the heavy favorite in the ACC. And as aforementioned, this one is on the road and will likely be the most hostile environment FSU plays in (considering the UF game is more of an even split of fans regardless of the location). This game falls on birthday eve, and if somehow FSU finds a way to win it you best believe I'll be up celebrating hard at midnight.
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