It's been a long road since December but at long last we are just over a week away from the return of FSU Football, when the Noles kick things off (literally) in Dublin, Ireland against Georgia Tech. I think my tears are still drying from the controversial playoff snub and wondering what could have been had Jordan Travis avoided a gruesome season-ending injury, but life goes on and the Seminoles now have their sights set on redemption in 2024.
Speaking of the playoff, it's worth reminding that this year the playoffs expand from 4 teams to 12, including the 5 highest ranked conference champions. That essentially means that under these new rules, winning the ACC will guarantee an automatic playoff spot, and more than likely a first round bye.
Speaking of the ACC, the conference adds 3 new members this season: California, Stanford, and Southern Methodist. Adding these 3 universities now brings the ACC to 17 total teams, making it the second largest conference next to the Big 10, who now has 18.
With the season opener just around the corner, I thought a good way to preview the 2024 campaign would be to take FSU's 12 game schedule and briefly discuss each opponent, ranking each game from least to most difficult. So without further to do...
#12. Charleston Southern (Nov 23)
Even though FSU will be favored in almost all of them, you could attempt to make an argument in just about every other game that the underdog could pull off the upset if the stars align. But this game is the exception. Even if FSU didn't bring their A game, the fact of the matter is they are stronger, faster, deeper. more athletic, and more physical by a multitude of country miles. This is a mere tune-up game which falls the weekend before the clash against arch-rival UF. If all goes as expected, this is a a game where FSU will have a sizeable lead by halftime and be able to play it's younger 2nd and 3rd string players in the 2nd half.
#11. Memphis (Sep 14)
The main storyline here will be Mike Norvell coaching against his former team for the first time, as Norvell was the head coach at Memphis before FSU hired him in 2019, a critical decision that proved to be a great one for FSU's ascension back to national relevance. Before taking the FSU job, Norvell had built Memphis into a strong program that consistently competed for conference championships and double-digit win seasons, including a 12-1 record in his final season. Memphis is no pushover, they went 10-3 last year, and this new 12-team playoff format makes reaching the playoffs more realistic for schools from these smaller conferences. But the conference they play in and their schedule tends to be significantly weaker than that of FSU, and they can't recruit to the same level, so this feels like a game where FSU should take care of business at home.
#10. California (Sep 21)
FSU plays two of the three new ACC members this season: California and Southern Methodist. On paper, Cal should be the much easier opponent. Previously a member of the Pac-12, which is now disbanded, the Golden Bears haven't had a winning season since 2019. They'll have the unenviable task of travelling across the country to play in Doak in the scorching Florida September heat. Despite hitting the transfer portal hard in the offseason, I fear Cal's transition into the ACC could be a difficult one, especially given all the cross-country trips for road games considering most of the conference's original members are along the East Coast.
#9. Boston College (Sep 2)
After its opener against Georgia Tech, FSU gets 9 days off before their home-opener against Boston College on Labor Day night. Boston College actually nearly pulled off the upset against FSU last season, where the Noles barely hung on for a 31-29 win where the FSU defense needed to make a final stop to prevent BC from attempting a game-winning field goal. But this time around, the game is in Tallahassee, and FSU will also have the advantage of already having a played a game whereas for Boston College this will be their first game of the season. For Boston College this is also the first game under new head coach Bill O'Brien, who formerly coached Penn State and the NFL's Houston Texans. With it being the home-opener and a nationally televised primetime game, I would expect the home crowd at Doak to be energetic and FSU to feed off of that energy. As long as the team isn't too jet-lagged from their return from overseas, this is a game FSU should win.
#8. Georgia Tech (in Dublin, Ireland) (Aug 24)
The last time these two played was in 2020 in Mike Norvell's first game as the FSU head coach, and Georgia Tech came from behind to pull off a surprising upset. Much has changed in the 4 years since, with FSU being rebuilt into a national title contender and Georgia Tech still being a middle-of-the-road ACC team at best. Playing overseas has its own unique set of complications, as does those beginning of the season jitters especially for inexperienced players taking on more playing time. But FSU is listed as an 11.5 point favorite and in terms of crowd I would imagine many more FSU fans are making the journey as opposed to GT fans which should make this feel more like a home game even though it's at a neutral site. Norvell will have them prepared and they'll be hungry to begin their season with a W to begin to right the ship from last year.
#7. North Carolina (Nov 2)
UNC has been one of the better ACC teams over the past several years, both in terms of recruiting as well as wins and losses, but their biggest challenge entering 2024 is replacing quarterback Drake Maye, who was a stellar college player and ended up being drafted 3rd overall to the New England Patriots. The Tarheels likely will lean more on the running game since they have one of the nation's top running backs in Omarion Hampton, but the FSU defense has been a difficult unit to run the ball against the past couple years. UNC's Achilles-heel in recent years has been their defense, so assuming that's still the case in 2024 FSU should be able to move the ball up and down the field and score points. As long as FSU can slow down Hampton and force North Carolina into passing, this feels like a game they should win at home.
#6. @ Duke (Oct 18)
Duke was a program on the rise under Mike Elko in his brief tenure as head coach. But Elko was pried away by Texas A&M to replace head coach Jimbo Fisher. Unfortunately the fallout from Elko leaving was a domino effect of several other players leaving both via the transfer portal and the NFL Draft, including starting QB Riley Leonard leaving for Notre Dame. FSU only plays 4 true road games in 2024 (this one, Notre Dame, Miami, and Southern Methodist), but this is likely the most probable win of the bunch given Duke's large turnover of the roster and staff. It will probably take a year or two for new head coach Manny Diaz, a former Miami Hurricanes coach, to rebuild Duke, but this year of transition favors Florida State.
#5. @ Southern Methodist (Sep 28)
From here forward all these games will provide a legitimate challenge to FSU. Of the three newcomers joining the ACC, Southern Methodist is by far the best-equipped to have early success. They won their conference last season and finished as the #22 ranked team in the country and they return most of their roster. How they adjust to playing ACC teams on a week to week basis is a legitimate question, but their talent level and roster continuity makes them a potential dark horse ACC contender, even in their inaugural year. I also hate the timing of this for FSU. This game occurs the week before the Clemson game, which makes it a potential trap game for FSU if they get caught looking ahead, and it's also their first true road game of 2024. My gut still feels that FSU's talent should win out here, but don't be surprised if SMU gives the Noles some serious trouble.
#4. Florida
Make no mistake, this game is almost always close regardless of these teams' records entering the matchup. Such is the case in any deep-rooted rivalry game, as emotions run high and the atmosphere tends to be electric and a rivalry game tends to be even more physical than a (already physical) normal game. With this being the final game of the regular season, as it always is, it will be interesting to see where Florida is at entering this game. Florida plays the hardest schedule in the country this season, with 8 of its 12 games being against teams ranked inside the top 20. If things go south quick for UF, it's possible that head coach Billy Napier may be relieved of his duties prior to this game. Florida's recent mediocre win/loss records often are the result of its extremely competitive SEC schedule, but from a talent/recruit perspective their roster tends to be pretty similar to FSU's, and the challenging schedule they play ensures they are incredibly battle-tested by the time of this game. This is a home game for FSU, but this game tends to be close to a 50/50 split of the two fan-bases, maybe slightly in favor of the home team due to student section tickets. But FSU has won this game the past 2 years, and it probably would have been less close last year if Jordan Travis was available, and I think there's a good chance they extend the win streak to 3.
#3. @ #19 Miami (Oct 26)
Similar to Florida, Miami has a head coach entering a pivotal year 3 in Mario Cristobal, but the Hurricanes seems to be garnering much more pre-season hype than Florida, as indicated by their top-20 ranking, which is third highest in the ACC behind only FSU and Clemson. The burning question, which seems to be a perennial one at this point, is can they finally live up to their high expectations. A big contributing factor to the hype is the addition of quarterback Cam Ward through the transfer portal, someone FSU also pursued and someone who also entertained the idea of heading straight to the NFL but ultimately landed with Miami. Ward is a dynamic QB who can hurt opponents with both his passing and rushing ability, and this may be FSU's biggest challenge against an aerial attack considering Clemson and Notre Dame are more willing to lean on their running backs. FSU and Clemson account for 11 of the last 12 ACC Championships and it has been some time since a third team was able to truly challenge them as the conference's two elite powerhouses, but from a talent perspective Miami has the tools to be right there with them this year. Miami and Clemson do not play one another in the regular season, so it's pivotal that FSU (who plays both of them) wins at minimum one of these two games if it wishes to reach a second-consecutive ACC Championship game. This is a road game, and one that tends to be a hostile environment for the Noles given the nature of Miami's fans and their hatred for FSU, but FSU has won the past 3 match ups and will be motivated to prove they still run the state of Florida.
#2. #14 Clemson (Oct 5)
Even though this is a home game, I still have it ranked slightly above the Miami game due to Clemson's level of ACC dominance over the past 10 seasons. To me, Clemson still represents the greatest threat to Florida State in the ACC. Adding to the juicy-ness of this already marquee match up, is the fact that FSU's quarterback this year, DJ Uiagalelei, spent three seasons at Clemson before essentially being told he wasn't good enough to be their quarterback and ultimately being benched and replaced by their current quarterback, Cade Klubnik. For DJ, this one is personal, which only adds more fuel to the fire in this battle of ACC kings. Clemson still recruits at a very very high level and always has an elite defense, but to return to the top of the ACC they'll need more from their offense than what they've had the past couple seasons. Fortunatelty, this one is a home game for FSU, which probably gives them a super slight edge. But it's close to a toss-up, and there's a very real possibility these two meet again on a neutral field for the ACC title in December.
#1. @ #7 Notre Dame (Nov 9)
That's right. My 30th birthday happens to coincide with Florida State's toughest challenge of the 2024 regular season. This is the only game currently where FSU is an underdog, as they are the lower ranked team and must play on the road. The climate could also play a factor as this is a night game in South Bend, Indiana in November, meaning we could see much colder temperatures than the FSU players are used to, which would be further inflated with wind and/or precipitation. The Irish always have one of the nation's best defenses and offensively like to wear down their opponents by running the football behind their talented offensive line while intermittently mixing in passes. This largely comes down to if FSU can win the battles in the trenches: can their o-line hold up against Notre Dames dominant defense and in turn can FSU's defense stifle Notre Dame's rushing attack and keep the game within reach if points are hard to come by. An FSU win will not come easy in this one, considering the combination of a top-10 opponent, a hostile environment, and the cold weather, which it makes it their most difficult game of the 2024 regular season.
