Ranking Every Game on FSU's Schedule by Difficulty

 

     It's been a long road since December but at long last we are just over a week away from the return of FSU Football, when the Noles kick things off (literally) in Dublin, Ireland against Georgia Tech. I think my tears are still drying from the controversial playoff snub and wondering what could have been had Jordan Travis avoided a gruesome season-ending injury, but life goes on and the Seminoles now have their sights set on redemption in 2024.

     Speaking of the playoff, it's worth reminding that this year the playoffs expand from 4 teams to 12, including the 5 highest ranked conference champions. That essentially means that under these new rules, winning the ACC will guarantee an automatic playoff spot, and more than likely a first round bye. 

     Speaking of the ACC, the conference adds 3 new members this season: California, Stanford, and Southern Methodist. Adding these 3 universities now brings the ACC to 17 total teams, making it the second largest conference next to the Big 10, who now has 18.

     With the season opener just around the corner, I thought a good way to preview the 2024 campaign would be to take FSU's 12 game schedule and briefly discuss each opponent, ranking each game from least to most difficult. So without further to do...

#12. Charleston Southern (Nov 23)

     Even though FSU will be favored in almost all of them, you could attempt to make an argument in just about every other game that the underdog could pull off the upset if the stars align. But this game is the exception. Even if FSU didn't bring their A game, the fact of the matter is they are stronger, faster, deeper. more athletic, and more physical by a multitude of country miles. This is a mere tune-up game which falls the weekend before the clash against arch-rival UF. If all goes as expected, this is a a game where FSU will have a sizeable lead by halftime and be able to play it's younger 2nd and 3rd string players in the 2nd half.

#11. Memphis (Sep 14)

     The main storyline here will be Mike Norvell coaching against his former team for the first time, as Norvell was the head coach at Memphis before FSU hired him in 2019, a critical decision that proved to be a great one for FSU's ascension back to national relevance. Before taking the FSU job, Norvell had built Memphis into a strong program that consistently competed for conference championships and double-digit win seasons, including a 12-1 record in his final season. Memphis is no pushover, they went 10-3 last year, and this new 12-team playoff format makes reaching the playoffs more realistic for schools from these smaller conferences. But the conference they play in and their schedule tends to be significantly weaker than that of FSU, and they can't recruit to the same level, so this feels like a game where FSU should take care of business at home.

#10. California (Sep 21)

     FSU plays two of the three new ACC members this season: California and Southern Methodist. On paper, Cal should be the much easier opponent. Previously a member of the Pac-12, which is now disbanded, the Golden Bears haven't had a winning season since 2019. They'll have the unenviable task of travelling across the country to play in Doak in the scorching Florida September heat. Despite hitting the transfer portal hard in the offseason, I fear Cal's transition into the ACC could be a difficult one, especially given all the cross-country trips for road games considering most of the conference's original members are along the East Coast. 

#9. Boston College (Sep 2)

     After its opener against Georgia Tech, FSU gets 9 days off before their home-opener against Boston College on Labor Day night. Boston College actually nearly pulled off the upset against FSU last season, where the Noles barely hung on for a 31-29 win where the FSU defense needed to make a final stop to prevent BC from attempting a game-winning field goal. But this time around, the game is in Tallahassee, and FSU will also have the advantage of already having a played a game whereas for Boston College this will be their first game of the season. For Boston College this is also the first game under new head coach Bill O'Brien, who formerly coached Penn State and the NFL's Houston Texans. With it being the home-opener and a nationally televised primetime game, I would expect the home crowd at Doak to be energetic and FSU to feed off of that energy. As long as the team isn't too jet-lagged from their return from overseas, this is a game FSU should win.

#8. Georgia Tech (in Dublin, Ireland) (Aug 24)

     The last time these two played was in 2020 in Mike Norvell's first game as the FSU head coach, and Georgia Tech came from behind to pull off a surprising upset. Much has changed in the 4 years since, with FSU being rebuilt into a national title contender and Georgia Tech still being a middle-of-the-road ACC team at best. Playing overseas has its own unique set of complications, as does those beginning of the season jitters especially for inexperienced players taking on more playing time. But FSU is listed as an 11.5 point favorite and in terms of crowd I would imagine many more FSU fans are making the journey as opposed to GT fans which should make this feel more like a home game even though it's at a neutral site. Norvell will have them prepared and they'll be hungry to begin their season with a W to begin to right the ship from last year.

#7. North Carolina (Nov 2)

     UNC has been one of the better ACC teams over the past several years, both in terms of recruiting as well as wins and losses, but their biggest challenge entering 2024 is replacing quarterback Drake Maye, who was a stellar college player and ended up being drafted 3rd overall to the New England Patriots. The Tarheels likely will lean more on the running game since they have one of the nation's top running backs in Omarion Hampton, but the FSU defense has been a difficult unit to run the ball against the past couple years. UNC's Achilles-heel in recent years has been their defense, so assuming that's still the case in 2024 FSU should be able to move the ball up and down the field and score points. As long as FSU can slow down Hampton and force North Carolina into passing, this feels like a game they should win at home.

#6. @ Duke (Oct 18)

     Duke was a program on the rise under Mike Elko in his brief tenure as head coach. But Elko was pried away by Texas A&M to replace head coach Jimbo Fisher. Unfortunately the fallout from Elko leaving was a domino effect of several other players leaving both via the transfer portal and the NFL Draft, including starting QB Riley Leonard leaving for Notre Dame. FSU only plays 4 true road games in 2024 (this one, Notre Dame, Miami, and Southern Methodist), but this is likely the most probable win of the bunch given Duke's large turnover of the roster and staff. It will probably take a year or two for new head coach Manny Diaz, a former Miami Hurricanes coach, to rebuild Duke, but this year of transition favors Florida State.

#5. @ Southern Methodist (Sep 28)

     From here forward all these games will provide a legitimate challenge to FSU. Of the three newcomers joining the ACC, Southern Methodist is by far the best-equipped to have early success. They won their conference last season and finished as the #22 ranked team in the country and they return most of their roster. How they adjust to playing ACC teams on a week to week basis is a legitimate question, but their talent level and roster continuity makes them a potential dark horse ACC contender, even in their inaugural year. I also hate the timing of this for FSU. This game occurs the week before the Clemson game, which makes it a potential trap game for FSU if they get caught looking ahead, and it's also their first true road game of 2024. My gut still feels that FSU's talent should win out here, but don't be surprised if SMU gives the Noles some serious trouble.

#4. Florida

     Make no mistake, this game is almost always close regardless of these teams' records entering the matchup. Such is the case in any deep-rooted rivalry game, as emotions run high and the atmosphere tends to be electric and a rivalry game tends to be even more physical than a (already physical) normal game. With this being the final game of the regular season, as it always is, it will be interesting to see where Florida is at entering this game. Florida plays the hardest schedule in the country this season, with 8 of its 12 games being against teams ranked inside the top 20. If things go south quick for UF, it's possible that head coach Billy Napier may be relieved of his duties prior to this game. Florida's recent mediocre win/loss records often are the result of its extremely competitive SEC schedule, but from a talent/recruit perspective their roster tends to be pretty similar to FSU's, and the challenging schedule they play ensures they are incredibly battle-tested by the time of this game. This is a home game for FSU, but this game tends to be close to a 50/50 split of the two fan-bases, maybe slightly in favor of the home team due to student section tickets. But FSU has won this game the past 2 years, and it probably would have been less close last year if Jordan Travis was available, and I think there's a good chance they extend the win streak to 3.

#3. @ #19 Miami (Oct 26)

     Similar to Florida, Miami has a head coach entering a pivotal year 3 in Mario Cristobal, but the Hurricanes seems to be garnering much more pre-season hype than Florida, as indicated by their top-20 ranking, which is third highest in the ACC behind only FSU and Clemson. The burning question, which seems to be a perennial one at this point, is can they finally live up to their high expectations. A big contributing factor to the hype is the addition of quarterback Cam Ward through the transfer portal, someone FSU also pursued and someone who also entertained the idea of heading straight to the NFL but ultimately landed with Miami. Ward is a dynamic QB who can hurt opponents with both his passing and rushing ability, and this may be FSU's biggest challenge against an aerial attack considering Clemson and Notre Dame are more willing to lean on their running backs. FSU and Clemson account for 11 of the last 12 ACC Championships and it has been some time since a third team was able to truly challenge them as the conference's two elite powerhouses, but from a talent perspective Miami has the tools to be right there with them this year. Miami and Clemson do not play one another in the regular season, so it's pivotal that FSU (who plays both of them) wins at minimum one of these two games if it wishes to reach a second-consecutive ACC Championship game. This is a road game, and one that tends to be a hostile environment for the Noles given the nature of Miami's fans and their hatred for FSU, but FSU has won the past 3 match ups and will be motivated to prove they still run the state of Florida.

#2. #14 Clemson (Oct 5)

     Even though this is a home game, I still have it ranked slightly above the Miami game due to Clemson's level of ACC dominance over the past 10 seasons. To me, Clemson still represents the greatest threat to Florida State in the ACC. Adding to the juicy-ness of this already marquee match up, is the fact that FSU's quarterback this year, DJ Uiagalelei, spent three seasons at Clemson before essentially being told he wasn't good enough to be their quarterback and ultimately being benched and replaced by their current quarterback, Cade Klubnik. For DJ, this one is personal, which only adds more fuel to the fire in this battle of ACC kings. Clemson still recruits at a very very high level and always has an elite defense, but to return to the top of the ACC they'll need more from their offense than what they've had the past couple seasons. Fortunatelty, this one is a home game for FSU, which probably gives them a super slight edge. But it's close to a toss-up, and there's a very real possibility these two meet again on a neutral field for the ACC title in December. 

#1. @ #7 Notre Dame (Nov 9)

     That's right. My 30th birthday happens to coincide with Florida State's toughest challenge of the 2024 regular season. This is the only game currently where FSU is an underdog, as they are the lower ranked team and must play on the road. The climate could also play a factor as this is a night game in South Bend, Indiana in November, meaning we could see much colder temperatures than the FSU players are used to, which would be further inflated with wind and/or precipitation. The Irish always have one of the nation's best defenses and offensively like to wear down their opponents by running the football behind their talented offensive line while intermittently mixing in passes. This largely comes down to if FSU can win the battles in the trenches: can their o-line hold up against Notre Dames dominant defense and in turn can FSU's defense stifle Notre Dame's rushing attack and keep the game within reach if points are hard to come by. An FSU win will not come easy in this one, considering the combination of a top-10 opponent, a hostile environment, and the cold weather, which it makes it their most difficult game of the 2024 regular season.

Silver Linings of the Aftermath and What's to Come

 

     We're all still working through the grieving process after the CFP Committee's unprecedented and polarizing decision to leave the undefeated Florida State Seminoles out of the College Football Playoff. The past week has been an emotional rollercoaster, one that consisted of anger, disgust, heartbreak, disbelief, and confusion all bundled up into one. It sucks, and it's going to suck and sting for a while, but the reality is what's done is done and the outcome won't be changing. That means there's really only two things that can be done: reflect and move forward.

     So that will be the aim of this article. To focus on the positive takeaways from a roller-coaster of a (but ultimately successful) season, and then to look at what's ahead for FSU as they prepare for the Orange Bowl, recruit high schoolers. search for talent in the transfer portal, and build for 2024 and beyond. 

Part I: Silver Linings

1. The Right Man Is In Charge

     If there was any doubt left about if FSU hired the right coach in Mike Norvell, it was put to rest in the final weeks of the season. Norvell and FSU proved that even with backup quarterbacks it was going to be like walking on broken glass to defeat this team. He was able to keep the team bought in and focused on their goals after the devastating injury to Travis and he was able to rally them to finish for him. He prepared not one, but two quarterbacks in just a week's time, one against an arch-rival in a hostile environment and the other in a conference championship game against a top-15 opponent, and developed game plans that allowed the team to still be successful and win games. 

     Look at FSU's four seasons since Norvell took over:

     2020: 3-6
     2021: 5-7

     2022: 10-3

     2023: 13-0

     There's a track record of distinct improvement season to season and over the course of 4 years Norvell took the program from a laughing stock to a National Title contender.

     Furthermore, Norvell defended the players and fanbase and put the selection committee on blast following the controversial decision. He did not remain silent nor did he attempt to be politically correct or overly careful in his wording. He was willing to go to war for his players/staff/administration/fan base with no concern of how it would be perceived or potential backlash or repercussions.

     It's equally worth mentioning how good Norvell has been for FSU off the field. This is a guy that genuinely cares about the players. This isn't a Jimbo Fisher situation where the players were robots that the coach used to achieve his own individual success, only to leave them in the dust once a higher-paying opportunity arose. Relative to Fisher's tenure, under Norvell the team is performing better academically, has higher graduation rates, and while under Fisher the players were consistently finding themselves in off the field trouble that was swept under the rug, the behavioral issues have seemingly vanished under Norvell's watch. The guy not only wants to be a great coach, but a molder of men. He gets the standard and values Bobby Bowden imprinted in the program, on and off the field, and I think Bowden is very proud of what he sees watching Norvell lead the program from Heaven.

     The players love playing for him, the coaching staff loves working with him, the administration speaks glowingly of him, and the fan base loves him 100% as well. Heck I freaking love the guy. He's the kind of coach that makes you PROUD to be an alumni. This isn't just a job to him, he believes this is a special place and feels blessed to be here. Great coaches are hard to find. FSU has one, and I feel he's here for the long-haul.

2. The Quarterbacks of the future gained invaluable experience

     While having Travis finish the season would have been preferred, the experience gained by Rodemaker and Glenn cannot be understated.

     After the Orange Bowl, Rodemaker will have started in two big games: one against an arch-rival in a hostile environment with playoff hopes on the line, and the other against the reigning back to back national champs. While the second game still needs to be played, the first should be a huge confidence boost. With the weight of the world on his shoulders, Rodemaker was able to march into The Swamp and shake off a slow start, and showed the ability to spread the ball around and lead the offense and helped the team beat their arch rival and complete an undefeated regular season. Georgia will be a massive step up in competition from Florida, but the Orange Bowl will serve as a good measuring stick for how well Rodemaker can perform against elite competition. Regardless of the outcome, this will provide more big game experience for Tate and will help in his preparation for 2024 if he is indeed the teams starter.

     On the contrary, Brock Glenn struggled mightily in his game, but let's put this into context. Rodemaker has been in Norvell's system since 2020 and was well-versed in the playbook, Glenn, an 18-year old, was in his first season, still learning the system and early in his development, and was thrust into a situation before he was truly ready and was forced to grow up early. Rodemaker's game came against a 5-7 opponent, Glenn's came against a top-15 team. Rodemaker knew he would be the starter the entire week leading up to the UF game, Glenn didn't find out until the day of the game. I'm not saying it was pretty by any means, but Glenn still avoided making critical mistakes and did just enough to give the team a chance. Louisville knew the situation and wanted to take advantage of it and sent constant pressure and blitzes at Glenn all evening, and to Glenn's credit he hung tough in the pocket and took hit after hit and continually got up on his feet and kept going. Say what you want about the performance, but for most 18 year old's the moment and situation would have been too big to handle. Glenn kept his composure and didn't let the moment get too big for him, and that's a massive step forward in his development. 

 

     With Travis graduating and AJ Duffy transferring, Rodemaker and Glenn enter the offseason as the only two scholarship QB's on the roster. FSU also a verbal commitment from one of the highest-rated high school QB's in the country, Luke Kromenhoek, who will officially sign later this month. I also believe FSU will search for another experienced QB in the transfer portal. I think the vision would be for Rodemaker and a transfer to serve as the experienced QBs and compete for the starting job in 2024, while Glenn and Kromenhoek are the developmental projects who could potentially compete for the job in 2025. Regardless of how the offseason goes, FSU fans should feel good about the fact that they have two quarterbacks on the roster with big game experience entering 2024.

3. No program has a bigger chip on it's shoulder

     One final big positive worth mentioning is the motivation that will stem from being screwed. Imagine, for a moment, what would have happened if the situation played out differently. FSU makes the playoff but likely doesn't win the national championship, so the outcome remains the same. Sure, they can say they made the playoff, but given the situation there probably would have been a sense of complacency about making it but not winning. But I believe being snubbed has a lit a fire within the team and staff, and there's a newfound motivation to right the ship. The staff can now convince both current and future players that the world is out to get them, and I think the staff can sell players on the excitement of playing for a program with this "Us against the world" culture and mentality. It's an opportunity to motivate the team so salt the earth and lay waste to whatever opponent lines up against them 2024 and beyond, so as to leave no doubt in any committee member's mind that this is one of the best teams in America. I believe the fire's been lit. The team will play harder, coach harder, recruit tirelessly, practice harder, train and condition harder, and leave no stone unturned in it's ultimate quest to become champions. From life's toughest situations can come positive and profound growth, and it's FSU's time.

Part 2: What Now?

     Even though FSU's quest for a national title in 2023 is over, December is still going to be a busy month for FSU between the Orange Bowl, the transfer portal, and the completion if it's 2024 recruiting class.

1. The Transfer Portal 

     Beginning Monday December 5, college football players who wish to transfer schools are allowed to enter their names into the transfer portal. No one has utilized the portal better over the past few seasons than Norvell and his staff. This was an essential part of Norvell rebuilding the program in a timely fashion, as many of these transfer players are able to make an instant impact as opposed to high schoolers who need a season or two of growth and development. In 2021 Norvell convinced Jermaine Johnson, an edge rusher from Georgia, to transfer to FSU and helped him ultimately become a first-round NFL draft pick. It's expected that both Keon Coleman and Jared Verse, who are also both transfers, will be selected in the first round of this year's NFL draft as well. To this point, most transfers FSU has acquired have had a very positive experience of calling FSU their new home and could advocate to current transfer players considering a change of scenery. FSU provides transfers with a great environment where you will be developed, play in big games in a national spotlight, and have a chance to reach the NFL. 

     FSU will be losing a lot of production, both in terms of graduating seniors and players heading to the NFL, which means there are holes that need to be filled. But FSU also wants to prove that it's going to be a perennial national title contender, and that it's not going to take a step back in 2024 despite the roster attrition. A number of talented players have entered the portal since Monday, and Norvell and his staff will continue to do their due diligence and be involved with several of them. As aforementioned I do think quarterback will be one area of need where they'll explore their options.

2. The High School Recruiting Class

     Signing day for incoming high schoolers is December 20. FSU currently has the #3 ranked recruiting class according to 247 Sports, behind only Georgia and Ohio State. The class currently has 23 verbal commits including 2 5-star players (a top 32 player in the country) and 15 4-star players (a top 350 ranked player in the country). Typically signing day consists of 3 different goals:

1. Keep as many of your verbal commits as possible (ideally all of them)

2. Target a couple players who aren't currently verbally committed anywhere

3. Convince a player or two verbally committed elsewhere to flip to FSU

     Even if nothing changes, this will be the most talented high school recruiting class Norvell has brought in. FSU has not brought in a recruiting class ranked higher than 18th since 2018, and hasn't had one inside the top 10 since 2017. FSU has also been involved with Jeremiah Smith, the nation's top player (a wide receiver) who is currently committed to Ohio State. If FSU pulls off that flip, there's a chance their class finishes 1st or 2nd. But it's important for FSU to finish the job between now and the 20th and put the final stamp on the 2024 class.

3. The Orange Bowl

     Amidst all this playoff aftermath and recruiting, there is still one more game to be played before we put a bow on the 2023 season. While a playoff game would have been preferred, FSU was rewarded with a match up against the next best opponent: reigning back to back national champion Georgia. 

     FSU is currently listed as a 14 point underdog so this is going to be a tall task for the Seminoles, an opponent far better than any they have faced so far this season. Both teams will probably have some players that skip the game to avoid risk of injury before the NFL draft.

     Still, this an opportunity for FSU to complete an undefeated season and prove the committee wrong in their belief that they don't stand a chance against good teams. This team prides itself on how they respond to adversity, and I have no doubt Norvell will have them motivated to finish and silence the doubters. Even without a national title, an undefeated season capped by a victory over the back-to-back champs would be worth celebrating and would end a roller-coaster of a season on a very high note. 

In Conclusion    

     I know it wasn't the ultimate outcome we were hoping for, but this season was a heck of a ride. I think we're all very proud of the resiliency and "find a way" spirit this group showed in the face of adversity, and what they have accomplished will serve as a huge building block for the future. They should hold their heads high, and fans should be extremely excited about the direction in which the program is headed. It's going to be a busy but exciting month for FSU, as they get back on the horse and continue to find the next wave of young men who will become Seminoles and further develop those returning next season. The program has come a long way over these past 4 years, but in a way their climb is still only just beginning to scratch the surface. I believe in this staff and what they are building. I believe some day they will add a fourth national championship to the University's collection and help FSU reach the mountaintop just like they did in 1993, 1999, and 2013. The book is still being written, and while this chapter had some gut-wrenching moments, it's setting up for one heck of a redemption arc.